Hedging mortality/longevity risks of insurance portfolios for life insurer/annuity provider and financial intermediary

In this paper, we propose two risk hedge schemes in which a life insurer (an annuity provider) can transfer mortality (longevity) risk of a portfolio of life (annuity) exposures to a financial intermediary by paying the hedging premium of a mortality-linked security. The optimal units of the mortality-linked security which maximize hedge effectiveness for a life insurer (an annuity provider) can be derived as closed-form formulas under the risk hedge schemes. Numerical illustrations show that the risk hedge schemes can significantly hedge the downside risk of loss due to mortality (longevity) risk for the life insurer (annuity provider) under some stochastic mortality models. Besides, finding an optimal weight of a portfolio of life and annuity business, the financial intermediary can reduce the sensitivity to mortality rates but the model risk; a security loading may be imposed on the hedge premium for a higher probability of gain to compensate the financial intermediary for the inevitable model risk.     

Gauss–Seidel Estimation of Generalized Linear Mixed Models With Application to Poisson Modeling of Spatially Varying Disease Rates

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are often fit by computational procedures such as penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of GLMMs are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to datasets having a very large number of records.

We propose a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss–Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits submodels of the GLMM to collapsed versions of the data. The strategy is applied to investigate the relationship between ischemic heart disease, socioeconomic status, and age/gender category in New South Wales, Australia, based on outcome data consisting of approximately 33 million records. For Poisson and binomial regression models, the Gauss–Seidel approach is found to substantially outperform existing methods in terms of maximum analyzable sample size. Remarkably, for both models, the average time per iteration and the total time until convergence of the Gauss–Seidel procedure are less than 0.3% of the corresponding times for the IWLS algorithm. Platform-independent pseudo-code for fitting GLMS, as well as the source code used to generate and analyze the datasets in the simulation studies, are available online as supplemental materials.     

Verification of the Usefulness of Radiotracing Methods in Hydrodynamic Investigations

In the paper comparison of accuracy of two methods used for investigations of hydrodynamic in continuous flow tanks has been made. Basis for the comparison is the experimental work performed for big industrial wastewater concentration equalization tank. The first method is based on the radiotracer experiment while the second one uses the analysis of response on sudden change of the technological parameters. The radiotracer method has better accuracy connected with the shorter sampling period.

Ks wird die Genauigkeit zweier Methoden zur Untersuchting der Hydrodynamik von kontinuierlich arbeitenden Flüssigkeitsbehältern verglichen. Grundlage dafür sind experimentelle Untersuchungen an groβen Industrieabwasser-Ausgleichsbehältern. Die erste Methode bedient sich der Radiotracertechnik, während die zweite Methode auf einer plötzlichen Veränderung der technologischcn Parameter beruht. Es zeigt sich, daβ die Radiotracermethoden die besseren Ergebnisse liefert, wobei auβerdem noch kürzere Probenaltmeperioden von Vorteil sind.     

“证据推理与模型认知”素养下的主题式复习与反思*——以“二氧化碳的主题式复习”为例

以“草系水族箱内补给的气体”为主线,构建有关二氧化碳的主题式复习;在解决系列问题的过程中,重视围绕证据进行推理、基于模型进行认知,从而发展核心素养,提升复习效益。     

Building and analyzing the US airport network based on en-route location information

From a complex network perspective, this study sets out two aims around the US airport network (USAN) which is built from en-route location information of domestic flights in the US. First, we analyze the structural properties of the USAN with respect to its binary and weighted graphs, and second we explore the airport patterns, which have wide-ranging implications. Results from the two graphs indicate the following. (1) The USAN exhibits scale-free, small-world and disassortative mixing properties, which are consistent with the mainstream perspectives. Besides, we find (2) a remarkable power relationship between the structural measurements in the binary graph and the traffic measurements in the weighted counterpart, namely degree versus capacity and attraction versus volume. On the other hand, investigation of the airport patterns suggests (3) that all the airports can be classified into four categories based on multiple network metrics, which shows a complete typology of the airports. And it further indicates (4) that there is a subtle relationship between the airport traffic and the geographical constraints as well as the regional socioeconomic indicators.     

Complex new materials from simple chemistry: Combining an amino‐substituted polysiloxane and carboxylic acids

Changes in rheological, adhesive, and swelling properties of quaternary salts, made by adding one of eight mono‐ or six α,ω‐alkanedioic acids (the latter with two to six or nine carbon atoms) to 6‐7PSil (a polysiloxane with 6%–7% of the monomer units contain a 3‐aminopropyl group) have been correlated with the salt structures. The simple acid‐base chemistry initiates drastic changes in the bulk properties of the materials that depend on the amount and type of the added acid. Thus, the quaternized forms of the 6‐7PSil have significantly enhanced viscoelastic and adhesive properties compared to those of the initial polysiloxane, and they can swell selectively liquids based on their polarity. Also, interpenetrating networks have been made in situ by photopolymerization of salts with vinylic carboxylic acids. DFT calculations on model systems consisting of dimethylammonium α,ω‐alkanedioate salts with two to six carbon atoms provide insights into the interactions responsible for the unexpected dependence of the properties of the 6‐7PSil salts on the chain lengths of the diacids. The potential for applying the methodologies described here to systems with other amino‐substituted polymers and other acid types is noted. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Polym. Sci., Part A: Polym. Chem. 2017 , 55, 3851–3861     

Phase-field modeling of void evolution and swelling in materials under irradiation

Void swelling is an important phenomenon observed in both nuclear fuels and cladding materials in operating nuclear reactors. In this work we develop a phase-field model to simulate void evolution and void volume change in irradiated materials. Important material processes, including the generation of defects such as vacancies and self-interstitials, their diffusion and annihilation, and void nucleation and evolution, have been taken into account in this model. The thermodynamic and kinetic properties, such...     

Further advances on low-energy lunar impact dynamics

We extend the analysis, started in a previous work [1], concerning the formation of lunar impact craters due to low-energy trajectories. First, we adopt the Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem and consider different choices of initial conditions inside the stable invariant manifold associated with the central invariant one in the neighborhood of the L₂ equilibrium point in the Earth-Moon system. Then we move to the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem to study the effect of the Sun on the distribution of impacts on the Moon’s surface.     

Asymptotic estimates of Gerber-Shiu functions in the renewal risk model with exponential claims

This paper continues to study the asymptotic behavior of Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty functions in the renewal risk model as the initial capital becomes large. Under the assumption that the claim-size distribution is exponential, we establish an explicit asymptotic formula. Some straightforward consequences of this formula match existing results in the field.